Political Risk Research Articles

Indicators of Sovereign Risk of South Africa’s International Monetary Fund Loan: The Nexus Between Political Risks and Economic Growth

Upon the approval of the 70 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan for South Africa, concerns have emerged over the affordability of this loan and its impact on the economy and sovereignty of the country. South Africa’s ability to pay its IMF loan is assured because its track record of loan repayment is good, considering that the loan is repayable in five years at an interest rate of 1.1%. This study explores political and economic indicators of sovereign risk of South Africa’s IMF loan taken in 2020. The tenets of sovereign risk are being explored in a South African context. The significance of this study lies in understanding sovereign risk from a South African context and forecasting the country’s capacity and sustainability of servicing its IMF debt. This study presents a special and underexplored case of sovereign risk mainly due to 2020 being the first time South Africa has taken an IMF loan since the inception of a democracy in 1994. This qualitative study heavily relies on secondary literature, theories, and predictive forecasting models and is aided by descriptive statistics to reach its conclusion. Findings from the Council of Foreign Relations used the CFR Sovereign risk tracker designed to gauge the susceptibility of emerging economy to default on external debt.

EVALUATION OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT DURING TUNNELS CONSTRUCTION IN SAUDI ARABIA

Tunnel construction projects are complex engineering projects that pose numerous safety challenges. Accordingly, prioritizing the protection of workers, the public, and the environment is imperative. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the most significant risks associated with tunnel construction projects. Twenty-nine hazards were identified through site inspections and interviews with engineers and managers engaged in various tunnel projects in Saudi Arabia. These risks were categorized into six groups, namely, technical, geological, environmental, social, human, political, contractual, and cost-related risks. Data were acquired from 98 of 108 respondents completing a questionnaire. The data were statistically analyzed using the SPSS V20 package. The Total Importance Index Impact (TIII) application determined the most crucial risks affecting tunnel construction safety management. The findings demonstrate that risk analysis facilitates project managers in identifying and focusing on principal risks, which supports the implementation and evaluation of safety management plans. By providing practical guidelines, risk analysis enhances the success rate of tunnel construction projects. Implementing measures to mitigate exposure to elevated noise levels, air supply hazards, fires, and oxygen deficiency is anticipated to result in numerous benefits, including improved worker health and performance, reduced time and expenses, enhanced productivity, and an improved reputation among staff and clients.

ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIES USED BY PT SEMEN INDONESIA TBK. IN ACHIEVING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING

This research discusses the role of international marketing strategy in the global expansion of PT Semen Indonesia Tbk using SWOT analysis. The research focuses on the utilization of the company's internal strengths, such as a positive reputation and integrated supply chain, in supporting expansion measures in international markets. The case study covers the acquisition of the Thang Long Cement plant in Vietnam, which expanded the company's market coverage in several countries including Vietnam, Singapore, and Bangladesh. Despite the success, political and legal risks in some countries posed challenges that needed to be addressed through risk diversification strategies and local partnerships. A deep understanding of cultural differences and consumer preferences in various markets was also identified as a key factor in achieving international marketing success for the company

Multi-dimensional identification of investment risks in renewable energy projects along the Belt and Road: an integrated framework based on HHM and WRT

ABSTRACT Due to the complexity of various risk factors and their interactive effects in the risk management of renewable energy project investment, this study uses Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM) and WSR–RFRM–TSS (WRT) methods to construct a risk assessment model for energy project investment. Firstly, we comprehensively identify the risk sources by applying HHM method, and then construct the risk assessment index framework based on the Wuli–Shili–Renli (WSR) methodology. To identify the most significant risk indicators, the risk factors are secondarily filtered by using the Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework (RFRM). Following that, multi-dimensional risk scenarios are created by incorporating the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS). Finally, an empirical study is conducted using the Karot Hydroelectric Project project as a case study. The results show that in the two-dimensional risk scenarios, the highest risk value is the coupling of political stability risk and institutional imperfection risk. In the three-dimensional risk scenarios, the highest risk value is the coupling of political stability risk, institutional imperfection risk and communication barrier risk. The risk values of two-dimensional risk scenarios are generally higher than those of one-dimensional risk scenarios and three-dimensional risk scenarios.

Risks on the Belt and Road in Eurasia: Local Perspectives and Options

ABSTRACT A binary, geopolitical narrative of a new “Great Game” for power in Central Asia may be too simplistic. It remains unclear what regionalisation trends will become embedded in Central Asia, with the apparent rise of China. The paper examines potential for China's Belt and Road Initiative to build new Eurasian economic interdependence through connectivity infrastructure and to reduce dependency for some actors on Russia. A political risk and grounded theory approach is taken, utilising in-depth interviews with local experts and stakeholders to develop a risk/opportunity framework. Conclusions from the research indicate China is unlikely in the foreseeable future to replace Russia as regional hegemon, but is likely to drive greater economic integration. Empirical investigation of dynamics on the ground - including the spectrum of options available to actors - is recommended for realist understanding of economic and other international connectivity trends across Central Asia.

Volatility Spillovers among Sovereign Credit Default Swaps of Emerging Economies and Their Determinants

This paper aims to investigate the volatility spillovers among selected emerging economies’ sovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs), including those of Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. Using data from January 2010 to July 2023, we apply the time-domain and the frequency-domain connectedness approaches.Empirical results show that (i) Indonesia, followed by China and Mexico, are the main transmitters of sovereign credit risk volatility. (ii) Among global factors, the volatility index (VIX), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and global political risk (GPR) positively impacted spillover on lower and higher quantiles. The results offer critical insights for international investors, policymakers, and researchers, emphasizing the importance of risk-aware investment strategies and cautious policy formulation in the context of financial crises and political events.

Political Opportunities and Risks of Opening the Zangezur Corridor, Its Role in Increasing Transport Connectivity in the South Caucasus

Political Opportunities and Risks of Opening the Zangezur Corridor, Its Role in Increasing Transport Connectivity in the South Caucasus

The Current Sales Status and Countermeasures of Chinese New Energy Vehicles in Europe

With the expansion of China's new energy vehicle overseas business, Europe has replaced Asia as China's largest export destination of new energy vehicles in 2021. As the world's second-largest and second-fastest-growing new energy vehicle market, Europe contains plenty of opportunities and challenges for Chinese car manufacturers. Through analysis, the author found that China's new energy vehicle brands have shown a rapid development trend in Europe in recent years and are operating well. This paper aims to deeply explore the main problems they face and find corresponding solutions based on this actual situation. After using two research methods: literature analysis and data analysis, this paper found that Chinese manufacturers have some problems with international competitiveness, brand image, sales and service capabilities, supporting facilities, and resistance to political risks, and measures need to be taken to solve them. In addition, Chinese car companies have also encountered the serious problem of insufficient basic charging facilities in the European market, and are affected by political factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and countervailing investigations.

Modeling the determinants of tourism diversification: An empirical analysis for Australia

This paper aims to use an augmented tourism demand model to examine the determinants of tourism diversification by using the data from 46 tourism markets and seven tourism activities in Australia from 1987 to 2021. The tourism markets in Australia have been further divided into sub-regions, and each region has been analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in the average income in the source markets and infrastructure investment in Australia increases tourism diversification. At the same time, the relative price effect appears to hinder Australia's tourism market diversification. Political risk has not been shown to have a significant impact on Australia's tourism market diversification. Policy conclusions and discussions related to the empirical results are presented in the main body of the paper.

Дистанционное электронное голосование: опыт применения в России и за рубежом

The purpose of the article is to study the use of remote electronic voting (DEG) in Russia and a number of foreign countries that have been using this innovative technology for a long period of time during local and national elections (Estonia and Switzerland), as well as those who refused to use it (Germany) due to various political risks. The cases of four countries (Russia, Switzerland, Germany, Estonia) are considered. The study is conducted using the case study method, which allowed us to identify the positive and negative sides of online voting, identify and propose ways to prevent both obvious and potential political risks associated with the widespread use of DEG in practice. Comparative studies are among the auxiliary tools for comprehensive coverage and analysis of the issues under consideration, which made it possible to compare the forms of DEG, their organizational and legal support in Russian and foreign legislation. The theoretical significance of the study is determined by the results of a comprehensive analysis obtained during an excursion into the history of the testing of DEG and the forecast of its further use both in Russia and abroad, structuring the stages of application during elections of various scales, making this method of expressing the will of voters legally binding, or limiting or prohibiting its use both domestically and abroad. for compatriots living abroad. The practical significance of the work consists in offering effective ways of public control over the course of the DEG, which will contribute to increasing confidence in the results of online voting. The authors propose the gradual introduction of DEG and only in regions capable of providing high-quality technical equipment and the possibility of public control over both voting and vote counting. The voter should have the opportunity to vote using a paper ballot in case he changes his mind and decides to express his will in the traditional way, even on the day of voting. Using the example of the cases of four states in which this technology was used with varying degrees of intensity, the authors conclude that it is necessary to use an inclusive (i.e. open) the DEG model and its various modifications (for example, such as the electoral blockchain), so that potential mobile voters have no doubts about the transparency of this method of expressing their will and the ability to track the cast vote at any stage of the electoral process, which will contribute not only to legitimizing the results obtained, but also to increasing confidence in the electoral system as a whole.

Experiences of research-policy engagement in policy-making processes.

Objectives and importance of study: For public policy to respond effectively to social, economic, and health challenges, there is an urgent need for research-policy collaboration to advance evidence-informed policy. Many organisations seek to promote these engagement activities, but little is known about how this is experienced by researchers and policy actors. This study aimed to understand how policy actors and researchers in Australia experience collaboration and the impediments and enablers they encounter. Study type and methods: An online survey was developed, and using convenience sampling, self-identified Australian policy actors and researchers were invited to participate. Results: In total, 170 responses were analysed, comprising 58% policy actors and 42% researchers. Respondents reported the primary purpose for collaboration was evidence-informed policy making. Policy actors reported that the most common barrier to collaboration with academics was 'budget constraints' while academics reported 'budget, 'political risk' and 'structural barriers'. Reported enablers were 'leadership' and 'connections'. Conclusions: Our findings build upon existing evidence that highlights the importance of collaboration for facilitating evidence-informed policy. Structural deficits in both policy agencies and research funding systems and environments continue to present challenges to policy-research partnerships. Future initiatives could use these findings to implement preferred collaboration methods, alongside rigorous evaluation, to explore 'what works' in promoting engagement for evidence-informed policy.

Political Risk Impacts on Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

Political Risk Impacts on Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

Causes of conflicts in standardization alliances related to the Belt and Road Initiative

Effective conflict management is pivotal for achieving innovation performance within standardization alliances, particularly those for the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R Initiative). However, existing research has paid limited attention to the interdependent relationship between influencing factors of conflicts in these alliances. To address this gap, this paper employs the interpretative structure model (ISM) to establish mutual relationships among 16 identified influencing factors. The results show that target difference, unbalanced input of resources, and unreasonable distribution of benefits are recognized as key facilitators at the top level, while political risks, impact of financial factors, and policy changes are identified as foundational drivers at the bottom level. At the intermediate level, factors such as demand difference, technical capabilities difference, cognitive difference, value pursuit difference, information asymmetry, lack of trust, poor communication, resource dependency, and unreasonable contribution evaluation are positioned. These identified interdependence relationships offer crucial reference information for conflict management in standardization alliances for the B&R Initiative.

China’s Great Firewall: Cybersecurity as Strategy for Building World Cyberpower

The information, communication, and technology (ICT) sector has grown significantly in China. One of the advancements they have seen is in the area of cybersecurity. China's growing cybersecurity competence enabled it to create the Great Firewall of China (GFW), a set of control and censorship regulations for internet communications in China. This article investigates the significance of cybersecurity in the development of China's authoritarian authority, with a focus on the GFW as a strategic component. The concepts of cybersecurity and cyberpower served as the article's theoretical foundation. Through interviews and literature reviews, this article employs qualitative methodologies.  This article demonstrates how China employs GFW to protect its citizens from cyber-attacks by focusing on political risks. China's cyber power is likewise increasing.

Connected to risk: CEOs’ hometown connections and firm-level political risk in China

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the nexus between CEOs’ hometown connections and firm-level political risk by employing a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2020. Our findings show that CEOs’ hometown connections mitigate firm-level political risk. The above finding remains valid after ruling out the explanation of the firm’s local embeddedness and conducting IV regression estimation. Then, we further discuss the potential interaction effect of CEO age and CEO duality. Therefore, we deepen the understanding of the advantage of CEOs’ hometown connections and show a plausible mitigating factor of the political risk faced by firms.

Развитие медиахолдинга в контексте формирования дуального рынка медиауслуг

The study of the national media market is particularly relevant because it is heavily influenced by political, information and production risks. Accumulating significant material, labor and information resources, the media market requires an analysis of the current state, trends and development prospects. The scientific works present the media business theory and its key concepts as well as, a new scientific direction media economics that studies economic laws in relation to the media business. However, there is still no single methodology for assessing the state of the media market, including regional. The markets of individual segments are mainly analyzed, for example, the television industry, online advertising, etc. In 2023 the national media market experienced an upsurge after the crisis of 2022, primarily due to the advertising market; it was influenced by such factors as the development of e-commerce, the emergence of new brands and promotion channels, digitalization, convergence and diversification. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the development of the regional media market is also influenced by regional factors due to the socio-economic development of the region. The analysis of the main socio-economic development trends of the Kemerovo region – Kuzbass uncovered the factors influencing the media market: demographic factor, agglomeration effect (North and South Kuzbass agglomerations), industrial production and its location income of the population. The analysis of the regional media market made it possible to assess organizations working in the field of information and communications, to draw conclusions about the predominant development of the advertising market, including outdoor advertising, and to determine the distribution of radio and the place of the Kuzbass Media Group in the market.

(The impact of the implications of political risk on the rate of return on equity for some real estate companies listed in the Iraqi and Saudi stock markets)

The research was conducted to give an idea of the mechanism of transmission of the effect between political risk variables and the performance of the real estate sector، by presenting the most prominent real estate concepts and detailing the types of real estate، as well as building a quantitative standard model to test the impact of political risk implications (voting and accountability (AV)، political stability (PV)، government effectiveness (GE)، Regulatory Quality (RQ)، Rules of Law (RL)، Control of Corruption (CC)) on the performance index of real estate sector companies (return on equity (ROE)) for real estate sector companies registered in the Iraqi and Saudi financial markets، for the purpose of answering the question (Can the implications of political risks influence the performance indicators of the real estate sector?)، which represents the problem on which the study was based، for the time period 2011-2020. The study relied on the Pooled Mean Group method (PMG)، which is part of the environment of the autoregressive model for distributed time lags for Panel ARDL Model data in building the model and estimating the results، with the tests this method contains، and the quarterly data were approved for all variables of the study. The study reached several conclusions، perhaps the most prominent of which is that the impact of political risks was positive with the rate of return on equity in Iraq and this is because of the relationship between return and profit.

Examining the Effects of Energy Efficiency R&D and Renewable Energy on Environmental Sustainability Amidst Political Risk in France

Examining the Effects of Energy Efficiency R&D and Renewable Energy on Environmental Sustainability Amidst Political Risk in France

Democracy and Markets in a Partially Globalized World: Local and Global Financial Market Responses to Elections in Developing Countries

Abstract Global market responses to elections are at the core of debates about financial globalization in developing countries. While existing research focuses on the ability of global markets to reward and punish national governments, much less is known about the role of domestic finance. I argue that domestic financial markets (1) react more strongly to elections than global markets due to excessive exposure to political risk at home and (2) lead global market responses to elections where domestic investors have an information advantage. I find support for these hypotheses using data on country fund pricing for major emerging markets between 1988 and 2015. The results show swifter and more dramatic reactions by domestic investors, which are transmitted to international markets. The findings underscore the underappreciated role of domestic investors in state-market relations under limited globalization.

Political risk of green public procurement and firms' green innovation

This paper examines the relation between the political risk of green public procurement and green innovation. Using government leadership change as a research setting, we find that political risk in GPP impedes firms’ green innovation. Moreover, firms that rely more on external financing for green innovation are more vulnerable to this risk. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of political risk in GPP positively varies with the firm's property right affiliation. Overall, we can conclude that government clients are not entirely low-risk for firms’ green transition.